MEMO: Florida Is The Democratic Party’s Best Senate Pick-Up Opportunity

To: Interested Parties

From: Ben Waldon, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Campaign Manager

Date: October 15, 2024

Subject: Florida Is The Democratic Party’s Best Senate Pick-Up Opportunity

FLORIDA HAS QUICKLY BECOME THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY’S BEST SENATE PICK-UP OPPORTUNITY

Rick Scott’s high unfavorability numbers and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s unique strength as a candidate have quickly made the Florida Senate race the best, fastest moving opportunity for Democrats to pick up a Senate seat.

With three weeks left in the election, the window to define the race and Mucarsel-Powell early has closed, and Scott has allowed Mucarsel-Powell to introduce herself to voters on the airwaves with little competition over the last month. In the face of Scott’s vast personal wealth, the Debbie for Florida campaign has been able to spend nearly at parity with the Scott campaign on TV in September. The DSCC has also announced a multi-million dollar investment in Florida that will allow the Debbie for Florida campaign to continue running an aggressive campaign against Rick Scott.

What once may have been a $200 million investment for the Democratic Party earlier in the cycle has shrunk potentially tenfold. By running an aggressive three-week campaign across four core media markets – Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and West Palm – Democrats would reach 76% of the Florida electorate efficiently.

The Debbie for Florida campaign continues to go on offense against deeply unpopular Rick Scott. This week, the campaign and DSCC launched a new ad, “Snake,” holding Scott accountable for his toxic record of stealing opportunities and freedoms from Florida families.

RICK SCOTT IS UNIQUELY UNPOPULAR

Despite previously self-funding his races at historic levels, Rick Scott has never won an election in Florida by more than 1% – including in Republican wave years of 2010 and 2014. New polling from Marist shows a margin of error race – results that are in line with several public polls.

Public opinion research conducted by Global Strategy Group from October 2-6 shows that Mucarsel-Powell’s advertisements are breaking through. When asked to describe any negative things they’re heard or seen about Rick Scott, Florida voters overwhelmingly mentioned the terms “Social Security,” “Medicare,” and “abortion.”

FLORIDA’S ENVIRONMENT PROVES BENEFICIAL FOR DEMOCRATS

The presence of well-funded and robust ballot initiatives to protect abortion and legalize recreational marijuana provides a huge advantage for the Mucarsel-Powell Senate campaign. Significant time and resources – over $150 million – has been dedicated to turning out voters for the election. Their mobilization efforts are unlike any other in the nation and are expected to create turnout performance close to 2020.

The Mucarsel-Powell campaign also benefits from those efforts with a similar message strategy parallel to the abortion initiative that focuses on protecting Floridians’ freedoms from government interference.

NON-PARTISAN AFFILIATED VOTERS SWING FLORIDA ELECTIONS

Looking past the baseline number of Republicans versus Democrats in the state to the number of non-partisan affiliated (NPA) voters provides a much more accurate picture of what this November will look like in Florida. NPA voters are the fastest-growing share of the electorate. Data also shows that the shift is not from Democratic voters to Republican voters – “the real shift is from Democrats to nonpartisan affiliation.” [Florida Politics, 11/4/22].

Recent public polls including Marist have shown Debbie Mucarsel-Powell leading among independent voters. NPA voters have already influenced elections this year. In a swing state House district in Orlando, a Democratic candidate won an R+11 seat by 3 points (a 14 point shift) despite the fact that more Republicans voted in the election than Democrats. Florida NPA voters swung for the Democratic candidate on abortion and affordability by nearly 70%.

NPA voters are typically younger, Latino, and Black voters – demographics that are primed to support Democrats with intentional and robust outreach. This is the kind of outreach that the Mucarsel-Powell campaign has focused on since the beginning of the campaign through weekly Spanish language radio and TV interviews, investments in Haitian and other Black-owned media, and campus volunteer programs.

Mucarsel-Powell offers Democrats a solution to the challenges they’ve faced with one of Florida’s largest electorates: the Latino population. From her compelling personal story that nips the socialism attack in the bud to her consistent appearances on Spanish language media, Mucarsel-Powell can mobilize Latino voters in Florida unlike any candidate running for Senate this cycle.

IN SUMMARY, THE FLORIDA SENATE RACE IS A TOSS UP

• Rick Scott is uniquely unpopular, Scott has never won a race by more than 1% – even in cycles when he has spent significantly more than he has in 2024.

• Scott has not used his cash advantage to date and with only a few weeks left in the election, he’s allowed Democrats the opportunity to compete with his personal wealth in this short window.

• Recent public and private polls show that Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is winning Latino and NPA voters.

• Ballot initiatives on abortion and marijuana are driving progressive turnout, and Florida, without significant presidential spending allows efficient advertising to over 76% of the electorate.  

The only thing that is missing in the Florida contest is a significant cash infusion over the last three weeks. With that help, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell can help retain the Senate for Democrats and bring new leadership to the Sunshine State.